Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 Wales?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$20.16

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 98.6¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,159

Combined PnL-$10.63

Yes5 traders

Total Value$59.25

Total Shares4,202

Combined PnL-$9.53

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 98.7¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$0.88	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$4.24	36% 455-810 (1265)
GC GC-P	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.12	37% 364-613 (977)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.64	48% 912-1002 (1914)
NM NM-P	Noavg 98.6¢	$780.28	$780.95	+$0.67	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 98.7¢	$226.18	$226.25	+$0.07	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$89	$88.85	-$0.15	37% 977-1669 (2646)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$41.34	$46.02	+$4.69	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$10.17	-$14.86	23% 25-85 (110)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 98.7¢	$200.74	$7.95	-$7.32	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.94	$4.93	-$0.01	36% 950-1657 (2607)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.89	$1.41	+$0.52	48% 293-321 (614)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.13	$1.26	+$0.13	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.39	$0.39	-$0.01	42% 1008-1381 (2389)

RN1

Invested

$2,974.8

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0.88

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,643.37

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$4.24

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

GC-P

Invested

$1,233

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.12

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,088.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.64

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

NM-P

Invested

$780.28

Value

$780.95

PnL

+$0.67

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

ghorrock

Invested

$226.18

Value

$226.25

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$89

Value

$88.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.34

Value

$46.02

PnL

+$4.69

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$10.17

PnL

-$14.86

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

38791873984189

Invested

$200.74

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$7.32

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.52

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.