Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Wales?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$168.09

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 94.2¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,173

Combined PnL-$1.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$464.04

Total Shares8,026

Combined PnL+$169.61

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 94.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.32	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$262.08	$397.82	+$135.74	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
GC GC-P	Noavg 98¢	$248.83	$249.36	+$0.52	37% 364-613 (977)
NM NM-P	Noavg 98¢	$238.7	$239.18	+$0.48	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$117.98	$122.11	+$16.25	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.1¢	$94.09	$94.59	+$0.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.1¢	$16.03	$27.52	+$15.75
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$54	+$26.97	23% 25-85 (110)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$40.64	$39.88	-$0.76	36% 455-810 (1265)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$12.12	$11.92	-$0.2	48% 912-1002 (1914)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$2.84	$8.09	+$5.24	48% 293-321 (614)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$6.86	$6.62	-$0.24	54% 478-403 (881)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1	$2.7	+$1.7	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$1.47	$1.43	-$0.04	42% 1008-1381 (2389)

RN1

Invested

$1,540.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.32

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$262.08

Value

$397.82

PnL

+$135.74

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

GC-P

Invested

$248.83

Value

$249.36

PnL

+$0.52

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

NM-P

Invested

$238.7

Value

$239.18

PnL

+$0.48

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$117.98

Value

$122.11

PnL

+$16.25

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Invested

$27.03

Value

$54

PnL

+$26.97

Record

23%

25-85 (110)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$40.64

Value

$39.88

PnL

-$0.76

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$12.12

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$5.24

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

478-403 (881)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$1.7

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.