Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Wales?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 97¢ · $739 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$738.58
-$1.51
97.2¢ → 97.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+42 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.1¢ | $368.97 | $369.35 | +$0.38 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97.2¢ | $194.24 | $194.64 | +$0.4 | 59% 3763-2587 (6350) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $68.37 | $68.44 | +$0.07 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $26 | -$1.03 | 23% 25-85 (110) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $25.12 | $25.12 | +$0 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $16.52 | $16.56 | +$0.03 | 52% 1721-1568 (3289) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $11.26 | $10.1 | -$1.17 | 47% 895-994 (1889) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $22.3 | $8.22 | -$0.08 | 48% 3214-3513 (6727) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $8.12 | $8.13 | +$0.01 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $6.55 | $6.55 | +$0 | 54% 478-400 (878) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $5.61 | $5.48 | -$0.13 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
Invested
$368.97
Value
$369.35
PnL
+$0.38
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$194.24
Value
$194.64
PnL
+$0.4
Record
59%
3763-2587 (6350)
Invested
$68.37
Value
$68.44
PnL
+$0.07
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$26
PnL
-$1.03
Record
23%
25-85 (110)
Invested
$25.12
Value
$25.12
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
1721-1568 (3289)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$10.1
PnL
-$1.17
Record
47%
895-994 (1889)
Invested
$22.3
Value
$8.22
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
3214-3513 (6727)
Invested
$8.12
Value
$8.13
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$6.55
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
478-400 (878)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.48
PnL
-$0.13
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.