Will Norway vs. Wales end in a draw?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 80¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$203.68

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 79.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,826

Combined PnL-$215.65

Yes9 traders

Total Value$517.26

Total Shares3,038

Combined PnL+$11.96

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$5.1K	$4.7K	+$33.33	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.8¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$117.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$151.1
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$19.26	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Noavg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.21	48% 521-557 (1078)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 81.4¢	$649.89	$634.37	-$15.52	26% 78-225 (303)
NO NotJump	Noavg 84¢	$579.84	$576.6	-$3.25	52% 828-769 (1597)
GC GC-P	Noavg 84.6¢	$611.39	$574.43	-$36.95	37% 357-610 (967)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 79.5¢	$945.04	$298.9	-$143.19	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82¢	$170.89	$165.77	-$5.12	56% 4063-3173 (7236)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$188.39	$163.27	-$25.12	47% 899-999 (1898)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$108.98	$119.75	+$10.77	37% 972-1637 (2609)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$71.13	$82.54	+$11.41	36% 937-1647 (2584)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$45.01	$55.87	+$10.86	37% 964-1664 (2628)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$39.69	$46.22	+$6.53	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 86¢	$43.52	$44.53	+$1.01	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 87¢	$40.15	$39.69	-$0.46	32% 99-208 (307)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20.99	$22.57	+$1.57	30% 340-779 (1119)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$21.42	$16.42	-$5	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$6.66	$7.52	+$0.86	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$3.03	$3.11	+$0.08	36% 953-1669 (2622)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 87¢	$1.74	$1.62	-$0.12	40% 435-654 (1089)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$5,126.23

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$33.33

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Both legs:

No$3,656.6181.8¢-$117.78

Yes$1,022.1117.9¢+$151.1

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,236.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$19.26

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

CandleHammerDrums

Invested

$1,197.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.21

Record

48%

521-557 (1078)

PT-S7

Invested

$649.89

Value

$634.37

PnL

-$15.52

Record

26%

78-225 (303)

NotJump

Invested

$579.84

Value

$576.6

PnL

-$3.25

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

GC-P

Invested

$611.39

Value

$574.43

PnL

-$36.95

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

38791873984189

Invested

$945.04

Value

$298.9

PnL

-$143.19

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$170.89

Value

$165.77

PnL

-$5.12

Record

56%

4063-3173 (7236)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.39

Value

$163.27

PnL

-$25.12

Record

47%

899-999 (1898)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.98

Value

$119.75

PnL

+$10.77

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.13

Value

$82.54

PnL

+$11.41

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.01

Value

$55.87

PnL

+$10.86

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.69

Value

$46.22

PnL

+$6.53

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$43.52

Value

$44.53

PnL

+$1.01

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$40.15

Value

$39.69

PnL

-$0.46

Record

32%

99-208 (307)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.99

Value

$22.57

PnL

+$1.57

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.42

Value

$16.42

PnL

-$5

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$0.86

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.12

Record

40%

435-654 (1089)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.