Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Norway vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$6.87

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 44.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,116

Combined PnL-$7.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$73.82

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$0.17

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Noavg 44¢	$923.89	$934.39	+$10.5	52% 17-16 (33)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 45.9¢	$160.8	$156.06	-$4.74	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 46.2¢	$137.51	$123.03	-$4.48	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 44¢	$82.94	$83.84	+$0.9	37% 353-603 (956)
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$62.53	$63.24	+$0.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$20.42	$20.6	+$0.19
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 55.4¢	$73.65	$73.82	+$0.17	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$61.88	$62.71	+$0.83	54% 496-419 (915)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$39.05	$40.14	+$1.08
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$22.83	$22.57	-$0.25
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$51.89	$48.27	-$3.62	48% 286-306 (592)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 47.2¢	$41.05	$38.24	-$2.81	56% 463-370 (833)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 45.9¢	$36.23	$35.12	-$1.11	42% 995-1363 (2358)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$34.89	$33.9	-$0.99	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$19.52	$19.74	+$0.22	47% 895-994 (1889)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Invested

$923.89

Value

$934.39

PnL

+$10.5

Record

52%

17-16 (33)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$160.8

Value

$156.06

PnL

-$4.74

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$137.51

Value

$123.03

PnL

-$4.48

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$82.94

Value

$83.84

PnL

+$0.9

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Both legs:

Invested

$73.65

Value

$73.82

PnL

+$0.17

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.88

Value

$62.71

PnL

+$0.83

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

Both legs:

Yes$39.0554¢+$1.08

No$22.8345¢-$0.25

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$51.89

Value

$48.27

PnL

-$3.62

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41.05

Value

$38.24

PnL

-$2.81

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$36.23

Value

$35.12

PnL

-$1.11

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$34.89

Value

$33.9

PnL

-$0.99

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$19.52

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.