Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 4.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 76¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Over25¢Under75¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$3.32

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 75.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$821.61

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL-$14.3

Over7 traders

Total Value$272.7

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL+$10.98

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
P1 P1kaso	Underavg 75¢	$408.69	$411.26	+$2.57	14% 18-112 (130)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 80¢	$414.08	$398.03	-$16.05	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 25¢	$132.22	$129.58	-$2.64	34% 735-1404 (2139)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 21.7¢	$68.06	$75.38	+$7.31	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$44.68	$38.1	+$2.42	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 81¢	$13.14	$12.33	-$0.81	76% 147-47 (194)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$10.63	$12.15	+$1.52	48% 677-745 (1422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 20.3¢	$8.01	$9.48	+$1.48	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 22.8¢	$5.22	$5.62	+$0.4	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$1.9	$2.4	+$0.5	43% 808-1065 (1873)

P1kaso

Under

Invested

$408.69

Value

$411.26

PnL

+$2.57

Record

14%

18-112 (130)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$414.08

Value

$398.03

PnL

-$16.05

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$132.22

Value

$129.58

PnL

-$2.64

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.06

Value

$75.38

PnL

+$7.31

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.68

Value

$38.1

PnL

+$2.42

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$13.14

Value

$12.33

PnL

-$0.81

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.63

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$1.52

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.01

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$1.48

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.4

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.5

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.