Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 2.5

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 66¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 13

Over66¢Under34¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$51.73

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 65.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares9,257

Combined PnL+$205.97

Under10 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares9,635

Combined PnL-$154.24

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 64.7¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$44.41	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 35¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$31.03	40% 137-202 (339)
SU suntori	Overavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$153.75	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
nigiri99	Overavg 64.8¢	$564.6	$570.51	+$5.9	52% 471-427 (898)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 39.7¢	$466.98	$411.28	-$55.7	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 40.5¢	$345.16	$298.11	-$47.04	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 40.8¢	$274.74	$235.9	-$38.84	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$207.33	$208.56	+$1.23	47% 189-212 (401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$110.1	$125.55	+$15.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$97.23	$83.01	-$14.22
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 40.3¢	$84.7	$73.5	-$11.2	56% 307-245 (552)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42.1¢	$66.69	$55.41	-$11.28	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 40.8¢	$63.51	$54.49	-$9.02	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41.1¢	$51.53	$44.85	-$6.68	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$24.6	$21	-$3.6	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$11.53	$9.61	-$1.92	36% 326-587 (913)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 58¢	$127.79	$5.7	+$1.91	48% 2786-3040 (5826)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$3,762.56

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$44.41

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$2,171.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$31.03

Record

40%

137-202 (339)

suntori

Over

Invested

$1,515.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$153.75

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$564.6

Value

$570.51

PnL

+$5.9

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$466.98

Value

$411.28

PnL

-$55.7

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$345.16

Value

$298.11

PnL

-$47.04

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$274.74

Value

$235.9

PnL

-$38.84

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$207.33

Value

$208.56

PnL

+$1.23

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

Both legs:

Over$110.157¢+$15.45

Under$97.2341¢-$14.22

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.7

Value

$73.5

PnL

-$11.2

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.69

Value

$55.41

PnL

-$11.28

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.51

Value

$54.49

PnL

-$9.02

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.53

Value

$44.85

PnL

-$6.68

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.6

Value

$21

PnL

-$3.6

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.53

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$1.92

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$127.79

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$1.91

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 14 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.