Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 1.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 86¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Over86¢Under14¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$0.3

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over86%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$992.85

Total Shares1,168

Combined PnL+$0.32

Under7 traders

Total Value$371.81

Total Shares2,340

Combined PnL-$0.62

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Overavg 85¢	$954.28	$954.37	+$0.09	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 15.1¢	$282.21	$290.11	+$7.89	47% 189-212 (401)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 85¢	$38.25	$38.48	+$0.23	52% 471-427 (898)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$37.69	$33.49	-$4.2	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$25.69	$26.55	+$0.86	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 18.2¢	$14.33	$11.8	-$2.53	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$6.03	$4.76	-$1.27	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 18.3¢	$3.47	$2.85	-$0.62	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$3	$2.25	-$0.75	36% 761-1361 (2122)

suntori

Over

Invested

$954.28

Value

$954.37

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$282.21

Value

$290.11

PnL

+$7.89

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$38.25

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.69

Value

$33.49

PnL

-$4.2

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.69

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$0.86

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.33

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$2.53

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.03

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$1.27

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.47

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.62

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.