Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Greece (44%) · Greece at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Netherlands21¢Greece79¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Greece

Consensus Traders

Greece 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.44

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGreece at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Greece

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Netherlands21%

Greece80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Greece4 traders

Total Value$771.13

Total Shares963

Combined PnL-$7.81

Netherlands5 traders

Total Value$340.78

Total Shares1,642

Combined PnL+$0.37

Greece — 44%Netherlands — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Greece. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNetherlands 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNetherlands 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Netherlands 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Greeceavg 80.5¢	$449.7	$444.05	-$5.65	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
38 38791873984189	Greeceavg 79.4¢	$368.87	$234.89	-$1.79	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Netherlandsavg 20.7¢	$165.35	$163.58	-$1.77	35% 749-1385 (2134)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Netherlandsavg 20.8¢	$157.62	$158.89	+$1.27	36% 761-1361 (2122)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Greeceavg 80¢	$115.35	$116.14	+$0.79	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Greece leg	Greeceavg 80¢	$79.99	$78.99	-$1
└ Netherlands leg	Netherlandsavg 20¢	$35.36	$37.15	+$1.79
nigiri99<$100	Greeceavg 80¢	$68.8	$68.37	-$0.43	52% 471-427 (898)
SE sentrio<$100	Greeceavg 80¢	$23.76	$23.83	+$0.07	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 19.7¢	$7.98	$8.5	+$0.53	48% 677-745 (1422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 19.9¢	$6.24	$6.57	+$0.34	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 21¢	$3.23	$3.23	+$0	34% 735-1404 (2139)

GoalLineGhost

Greece

Invested

$449.7

Value

$444.05

PnL

-$5.65

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

38791873984189

Greece

Invested

$368.87

Value

$234.89

PnL

-$1.79

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LightParadoxCTR

Netherlands

Invested

$165.35

Value

$163.58

PnL

-$1.77

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

MadridTimeCTR

Netherlands

Invested

$157.62

Value

$158.89

PnL

+$1.27

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Greece

Invested

$115.35

Value

$116.14

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Greece$79.9980¢-$1

Netherlands$35.3620¢+$1.79

nigiri99<$100

Greece

Invested

$68.8

Value

$68.37

PnL

-$0.43

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

sentrio<$100

Greece

Invested

$23.76

Value

$23.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$7.98

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.53

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

VenusianCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Research grade

NeutralGreece at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Greece

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Greece. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNetherlands 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNetherlands 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Netherlands 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Greece wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.