Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Greece (44%) · Greece at 61¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 13

Netherlands40¢Greece60¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Greece

Consensus Traders

Greece 44%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

-$15.97

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 60.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGreece at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Greece

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Netherlands40%

Greece61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Greece7 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares16,698

Combined PnL+$47.76

Netherlands9 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares16,505

Combined PnL-$63.73

Greece — 44%Netherlands — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Greece. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNetherlands 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Netherlands 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Greeceavg 60.2¢	$9.1K	$9.1K	+$45.7	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Netherlandsavg 40¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$79.27	61% 1003-631 (1634)
0xheavy888	Greeceavg 60.4¢	$616.01	$617.46	+$1.45	53% 388-339 (727)
VE VenusianCTR	Netherlandsavg 39.7¢	$533.78	$531.16	-$2.62	34% 735-1404 (2139)
38 38791873984189	Greeceavg 60.2¢	$454.09	$136.63	+$5.92	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Greeceavg 61.9¢	$136.25	$132.08	-$4.17	56% 307-245 (552)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Netherlandsavg 38¢	$126.2	$129.52	+$3.32	35% 749-1385 (2134)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Netherlandsavg 36.8¢	$100.94	$108.31	+$7.37	36% 761-1361 (2122)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 37¢	$76.77	$81.92	+$5.14	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Greeceavg 61¢	$74.01	$72.79	-$1.21	47% 189-212 (401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 38.4¢	$32.35	$33.26	+$0.91	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SU suntori<$100	Greeceavg 61.2¢	$30.39	$24.17	+$0.12	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 38.5¢	$20.26	$21.31	+$1.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 38¢	$6.73	$6.99	+$0.27	51% 46-45 (91)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Netherlandsavg 38.5¢	$3.85	$3.95	+$0.1	43% 808-1065 (1873)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Greeceavg 61¢	$3.05	$3	-$0.05	44% 391-495 (886)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Greece

Invested

$9,080.49

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$45.7

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

darkumbreon88CTR

Netherlands

Invested

$6,018.35

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$79.27

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

0xheavy888

Greece

Invested

$616.01

Value

$617.46

PnL

+$1.45

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

VenusianCTR

Netherlands

Invested

$533.78

Value

$531.16

PnL

-$2.62

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

38791873984189

Greece

Invested

$454.09

Value

$136.63

PnL

+$5.92

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LeLynxMalynx

Greece

Invested

$136.25

Value

$132.08

PnL

-$4.17

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

LightParadoxCTR

Netherlands

Invested

$126.2

Value

$129.52

PnL

+$3.32

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

MadridTimeCTR

Netherlands

Invested

$100.94

Value

$108.31

PnL

+$7.37

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$76.77

Value

$81.92

PnL

+$5.14

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Greece

Invested

$74.01

Value

$72.79

PnL

-$1.21

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$32.35

Value

$33.26

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

suntori<$100

Greece

Invested

$30.39

Value

$24.17

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$20.26

Value

$21.31

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.27

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

sentrioCTR<$100

Netherlands

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Greece

Invested

$3.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

Research grade

NeutralGreece at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Greece

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Greece. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNetherlands 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Netherlands 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Greece wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.