Will Netherlands win on 2026-11-13?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 64¢ · $869 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$869.03
-$6.85
64.6¢ → 63.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 64¢ | $532.48 | $532.48 | +$0 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
CI cigarettes | Yesavg 66¢ | $118.8 | $115.2 | -$3.6 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $100.21 | $99.59 | -$0.61 | 22% 33-116 (149) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 66¢ | $76.56 | $74.24 | -$2.32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34¢ | $23.65 | $25.35 | +$1.71 | |
38 38791873984189 | Yesavg 66¢ | $102.09 | $99.25 | -$2.84 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 66.2¢ | $24.84 | $22.51 | -$0.41 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Invested
$532.48
Value
$532.48
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$118.8
Value
$115.2
PnL
-$3.6
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$100.21
Value
$99.59
PnL
-$0.61
Record
22%
33-116 (149)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.09
Value
$99.25
PnL
-$2.84
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$24.84
Value
$22.51
PnL
-$0.41
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.