Will Greece win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 85¢ · $371 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$371.35
-$0.24
86.6¢ → 84.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 87¢ | $260.92 | $257.26 | -$3.66 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $85.84 | $84.71 | -$1.13 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $23.4 | $27.9 | +$4.5 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.25 | $1.3 | +$0.04 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.18 | $0.18 | +$0.01 | 22% 33-116 (149) |
Invested
$260.92
Value
$257.26
PnL
-$3.66
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$85.84
Value
$84.71
PnL
-$1.13
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$4.5
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.01
Record
22%
33-116 (149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.