Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Greece?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 92¢ · $276 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$276.22
$76.77
90.4¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90.9¢ | $100.41 | $101.06 | +$0.65 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $75.96 | +$64.53 | 21% 16-61 (77) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $51.32 | $50.54 | +$0.98 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $5 | $16.65 | +$11.65 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $16.56 | $16.56 | +$0 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9 | $9.1 | +$0.1 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $5.1 | $4.19 | -$0.91 | 46% 2084-2445 (4529) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.89 | $1.7 | -$0.19 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.5 | $0.45 | -$0.05 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
Invested
$100.41
Value
$101.06
PnL
+$0.65
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$75.96
PnL
+$64.53
Record
21%
16-61 (77)
Invested
$51.32
Value
$50.54
PnL
+$0.98
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$5
Value
$16.65
PnL
+$11.65
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$9
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$4.19
PnL
-$0.91
Record
46%
2084-2445 (4529)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.