Will Netherlands vs. Greece end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$147.75
$5.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $58.65 | $58.29 | -$0.36 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.23 | $49.04 | +$5.97 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $21.36 | $21.49 | +$0.14 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $18.81 | $18.93 | +$0.12 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
Invested
$58.65
Value
$58.29
PnL
-$0.36
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$49.04
PnL
+$5.97
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$21.36
Value
$21.49
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.81
Value
$18.93
PnL
+$0.12
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.