Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Netherlands vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 44¢ · $852 held · ends Nov 13

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$852.36

Combined PnL

-$9.41

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 43.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$834.94

Total Shares1,919

Combined PnL-$9.51

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.42

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$0.1

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 44¢	$634.61	$627.39	-$7.21	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 43.8¢	$49.42	$49.13	-$0.29	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$48.44	$47.89	-$0.55	34% 610-1204 (1814)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$35.64	$35.24	-$0.41	42% 98-135 (233)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$30.8	$30.45	-$0.35	54% 217-187 (404)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$23.06	$22.8	-$0.26	35% 622-1179 (1801)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$20.28	$19.87	-$0.41	54% 1043-906 (1949)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$9.52	$9.44	-$0.08	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$5	$5.18	+$0.19	47% 25-28 (53)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	65% 144-78 (222)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.18	-$0.03	41% 614-874 (1488)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$634.61

Value

$627.39

PnL

-$7.21

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$49.42

Value

$49.13

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$48.44

Value

$47.89

PnL

-$0.55

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$35.64

Value

$35.24

PnL

-$0.41

Record

42%

98-135 (233)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$30.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

217-187 (404)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.06

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$0.26

Record

35%

622-1179 (1801)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

25-28 (53)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

144-78 (222)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

614-874 (1488)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.