Will Ukraine win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 70¢ · $702 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$701.99
$3.53
68.9¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 69¢ | $326.16 | $328.52 | +$2.36 | 36% 926-1642 (2568) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 68¢ | $117.59 | $118.45 | +$0.86 | 37% 351-603 (954) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $98.42 | $100.01 | +$1.59 | 51% 70-66 (136) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $58.33 | $58.75 | +$0.42 | 37% 965-1630 (2595) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $37.23 | $36.19 | -$1.03 | 53% 1335-1164 (2499) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $32 | $31.51 | -$0.5 | 56% 460-366 (826) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.74 | $13.84 | +$0.1 | 59% 3761-2587 (6348) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $11.06 | $10.8 | -$0.27 | 49% 3800-3964 (7764) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.93 | $3.91 | -$0.02 | 42% 988-1357 (2345) |
Invested
$326.16
Value
$328.52
PnL
+$2.36
Record
36%
926-1642 (2568)
Invested
$117.59
Value
$118.45
PnL
+$0.86
Record
37%
351-603 (954)
Invested
$98.42
Value
$100.01
PnL
+$1.59
Record
51%
70-66 (136)
Invested
$58.33
Value
$58.75
PnL
+$0.42
Record
37%
965-1630 (2595)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$37.23
Value
$36.19
PnL
-$1.03
Record
53%
1335-1164 (2499)
Invested
$32
Value
$31.51
PnL
-$0.5
Record
56%
460-366 (826)
Invested
$13.74
Value
$13.84
PnL
+$0.1
Record
59%
3761-2587 (6348)
Invested
$11.06
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.27
Record
49%
3800-3964 (7764)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$3.91
PnL
-$0.02
Record
42%
988-1357 (2345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.