Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 84¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over17¢Under83¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$60.46

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 83.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,177

Combined PnL+$39.25

Over5 traders

Total Value$465.86

Total Shares2,834

Combined PnL+$21.21

Under — 62%Over — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 83.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$22.15	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
0xheavy888	Underavg 84.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$4.04	54% 503-422 (925)
NM NM-P	Underavg 83¢	$830	$840	+$10	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
GC GC-P	Underavg 83¢	$820.79	$830.68	+$9.89	37% 367-618 (985)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 16¢	$245.47	$253.18	+$7.71	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 15¢	$131.09	$144.2	+$13.11	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 83¢	$93.79	$94.92	+$1.13	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 15.9¢	$53.58	$53.83	+$0.25	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 83¢	$29.32	$29.62	+$0.31	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$10.99	$11.33	+$0.34	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 85¢	$5.67	$5.53	-$0.13	55% 499-401 (900)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$3.52	$3.31	-$0.21	37% 991-1715 (2706)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 86¢	$1.72	$1.67	-$0.05	51% 568-535 (1103)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,360.17

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$22.15

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$1,012.02

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$4.04

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$830

Value

$840

PnL

+$10

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$820.79

Value

$830.68

PnL

+$9.89

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$245.47

Value

$253.18

PnL

+$7.71

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$131.09

Value

$144.2

PnL

+$13.11

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$93.79

Value

$94.92

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.58

Value

$53.83

PnL

+$0.25

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$29.32

Value

$29.62

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.99

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.