Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$4.7K
$88.11
61.1¢ → 62.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 61¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$84.73 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 38¢ | $419.14 | $413.63 | -$5.51 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 62¢ | $409.64 | $412.94 | +$3.3 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 37.2¢ | $251.03 | $256.56 | +$5.53 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 37.3¢ | $54.12 | $54.47 | +$0.35 | 42% 1030-1415 (2445) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $8.12 | $7.81 | -$0.31 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $0.56 | $0.59 | +$0.03 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
Invested
$3,445.52
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$84.73
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$419.14
Value
$413.63
PnL
-$5.51
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$409.64
Value
$412.94
PnL
+$3.3
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$251.03
Value
$256.56
PnL
+$5.53
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$54.12
Value
$54.47
PnL
+$0.35
Record
42%
1030-1415 (2445)
Invested
$8.12
Value
$7.81
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.59
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.