Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (73%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 27¢ · $907 held · ended Nov 14

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$907

Combined PnL

$60.22

Smart Money Entry

18.4¢ → 26.9¢

+46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$513.12

Total Shares2,326

Combined PnL+$71.09

Over4 traders

Total Value$145.48

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$10.88

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 19.5¢	$210.93	$280.96	+$70.03	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Overavg 77¢	$206.12	$248.4	+$42.27	77% 24-7 (31)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77¢	$191.26	$191.39	+$0.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 6¢	$14.86	$57.01	+$42.15
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 16.8¢	$145.38	$134.42	-$10.96	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 98¢	$98	$92	-$6	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 22.9¢	$65.93	$75.13	+$9.2	37% 996-1715 (2711)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 98¢	$39.2	$34.4	-$4.8	85% 217-39 (256)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$15.04	$17.23	+$2.19	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 89¢	$13.13	$12.76	-$0.37	75% 188-64 (252)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 88¢	$6.02	$6.32	+$0.29	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11.3¢	$3.46	$4.14	+$0.68	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$1.29	$1.24	-$0.05	50% 73-72 (145)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$210.93

Value

$280.96

PnL

+$70.03

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$206.12

Value

$248.4

PnL

+$42.27

Record

77%

24-7 (31)

Both legs:

Invested

$145.38

Value

$134.42

PnL

-$10.96

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$98

Value

$92

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.93

Value

$75.13

PnL

+$9.2

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$39.2

Value

$34.4

PnL

-$4.8

Record

85%

217-39 (256)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.04

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$2.19

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$13.13

Value

$12.76

PnL

-$0.37

Record

75%

188-64 (252)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$6.02

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$0.29

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.46

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

73-72 (145)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.9%

26.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$245.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

346.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.