Spread: Northern Ireland (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ukraine (78%) · Ukraine at 92¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 14

Northern Ireland9¢Ukraine91¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ukraine

Consensus Traders

Ukraine 78%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 91.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUkraine at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ukraine

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Northern Ireland9%

Ukraine92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ukraine7 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares18,611

Combined PnL+$847.31

Northern Ireland2 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares19,005

Combined PnL+$665.05

Ukraine — 78%Northern Ireland — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Ukraine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNorthern Ireland 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUkraine 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ukraine 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Ukraineavg 85¢	$13.2K	$13.9K	+$694.77	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
HB HBAFlover98CTR	Northern Irelandavg 15¢	$2.8K	$3.5K	+$665.05	— 2-2 (4)
FL Flaznorp	Ukraineavg 85.1¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$147.15	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
RN1	Ukraineavg 84¢	$262.5	$265.63	+$3.13	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
38 38791873984189	Ukraineavg 84.2¢	$143.74	$99.71	+$1.31	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Ukraineavg 84.8¢	$35.47	$35.54	+$0.07	48% 301-331 (632)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Ukraineavg 83¢	$31.54	$32.3	+$0.76	55% 502-403 (905)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ukraineavg 85¢	$24.51	$11.06	+$0.13	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Northern Irelandavg 15¢	$1.56	$1.56	+$0	48% 2164-2307 (4471)

GoalLineGhost

Ukraine

Invested

$13,169.68

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$694.77

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

HBAFlover98CTR

Northern Ireland

Invested

$2,849.03

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$665.05

Record

—

2-2 (4)

Flaznorp

Ukraine

Invested

$2,229.73

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$147.15

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

RN1

Ukraine

Invested

$262.5

Value

$265.63

PnL

+$3.13

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

38791873984189

Ukraine

Invested

$143.74

Value

$99.71

PnL

+$1.31

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Ukraine

Invested

$35.47

Value

$35.54

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Ukraine

Invested

$31.54

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$0.76

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

ghorrock<$100

Ukraine

Invested

$24.51

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Northern Ireland

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

Research grade

NeutralUkraine at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ukraine

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Ukraine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNorthern Ireland 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUkraine 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ukraine 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ukraine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.