Northern Ireland leading at halftime?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$51.13

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,837

Combined PnL+$56.23

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.9

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$5.1

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 71¢	$426	$432	+$6	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$313.72	$313.72	+$0	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 71.9¢	$170.31	$170.64	+$0.33	48% 301-331 (632)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 23.5¢	$51.1	$145.84	+$94.74	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83¢	$150.41	$106.01	-$44.4	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 72¢	$109.06	$88.62	-$0.44	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 72¢	$31.68	$31.68	+$0	55% 502-403 (905)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$15	$9.9	-$5.1	39% 563-895 (1458)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 72¢	$7.87	$7.87	-$0	59% 717-491 (1208)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$426

Value

$432

PnL

+$6

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$313.72

Value

$313.72

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$170.31

Value

$170.64

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$51.1

Value

$145.84

PnL

+$94.74

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Flaznorp

Invested

$150.41

Value

$106.01

PnL

-$44.4

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

38791873984189

Invested

$109.06

Value

$88.62

PnL

-$0.44

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$5.1

Record

39%

563-895 (1458)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$7.87

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

717-491 (1208)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.