Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 44¢ · $633 held · ended Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$632.89

Combined PnL

$44.66

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 44¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$347.14

Total Shares839

Combined PnL+$36.79

Over9 traders

Total Value$110.68

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$7.87

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 44¢	$260.48	$216.08	-$44.4	36% 979-1704 (2683)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 66.1¢	$232.51	$175.08	-$57.43	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.1¢	$199.01	$125	-$74.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.1¢	$33.5	$50.08	+$16.58
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 10.4¢	$21.15	$108.21	+$87.07	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 35¢	$35	$35.5	+$0.5	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 58¢	$31.9	$34.93	+$3.02	55% 502-403 (905)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$27.25	$19.89	-$7.36	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 58¢	$13.55	$13.65	+$0.1	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 42¢	$10.5	$12.99	+$2.5	40% 333-501 (834)
RN1<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.28	$3.36	+$0.08	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Overavg 60¢	$3	$3.18	+$0.17	59% 717-491 (1208)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.48	$2.95	+$1.48	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Overavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.6	+$0.5	51% 163-158 (321)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.6	+$0.5	61% 1432-915 (2347)
dips.<$100	Overavg 29¢	$3.35	$1.88	+$0.49	47% 993-1122 (2115)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$260.48

Value

$216.08

PnL

-$44.4

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$232.51

Value

$175.08

PnL

-$57.43

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Both legs:

Under$199.0166.1¢-$74.01

Over$33.539.1¢+$16.58

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$21.15

Value

$108.21

PnL

+$87.07

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$35

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$31.9

Value

$34.93

PnL

+$3.02

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.25

Value

$19.89

PnL

-$7.36

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.55

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$10.5

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$2.5

Record

40%

333-501 (834)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

lonmi2511<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.17

Record

59%

717-491 (1208)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.48

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$1.48

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

163-158 (321)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.5

Record

61%

1432-915 (2347)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$3.35

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.49

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.