Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine end in a draw?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$25.07

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 31.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,996

Combined PnL+$25.07

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO jole24CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$533.5	$542.11	+$8.6	45% 23-28 (51)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$384.42	$389.12	+$4.7	59% 3761-2586 (6347)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$212.99	$216.43	+$3.44
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$171.43	$172.69	+$1.26
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$351.87	$357.55	+$5.68	37% 351-601 (952)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$326.53	$331.75	+$5.21	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$202	$205.26	+$3.26	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$76.57	$77.81	+$1.24	48% 285-304 (589)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$25.69	$26.05	+$0.36	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$21.7	$22.05	+$0.35	55% 447-361 (808)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$15.5	$15.75	+$0.25	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$4.01	$4.07	+$0.06	62% 202-122 (324)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$3.8	$3.86	+$0.06	46% 2546-3015 (5561)

jole24CTR

Yes

Invested

$533.5

Value

$542.11

PnL

+$8.6

Record

45%

23-28 (51)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$384.42

Value

$389.12

PnL

+$4.7

Record

59%

3761-2586 (6347)

Both legs:

Invested

$351.87

Value

$357.55

PnL

+$5.68

Record

37%

351-601 (952)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$326.53

Value

$331.75

PnL

+$5.21

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$202

Value

$205.26

PnL

+$3.26

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.57

Value

$77.81

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.69

Value

$26.05

PnL

+$0.36

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.7

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$0.35

Record

55%

447-361 (808)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.5

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

62%

202-122 (324)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.