Northern Ireland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$42.98

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 55¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,763

Combined PnL-$7.93

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,505

Combined PnL+$50.91

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Noavg 57.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$8	54% 503-421 (924)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 42.7¢	$355.64	$374.76	+$19.12	36% 950-1657 (2607)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$290.33	$301.82	+$11.49	37% 985-1642 (2627)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$264.09	$282.95	+$18.86	37% 968-1674 (2642)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 56.7¢	$170.74	$170.15	-$0.59	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$92.26	$93.39	+$1.13	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$32.52	$32.13	-$0.39	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$28.7	$29.4	+$0.7	55% 474-384 (858)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 57¢	$25.46	$25.91	+$0.45	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57¢	$10.55	$10.76	+$0.21	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

0xheavy888

Invested

$1,387.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$8

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$355.64

Value

$374.76

PnL

+$19.12

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$290.33

Value

$301.82

PnL

+$11.49

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$264.09

Value

$282.95

PnL

+$18.86

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

38791873984189

Invested

$170.74

Value

$170.15

PnL

-$0.59

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.26

Value

$93.39

PnL

+$1.13

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.52

Value

$32.13

PnL

-$0.39

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.7

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$25.46

Value

$25.91

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$10.76

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.