Montenegro vs. Latvia: O/U 4.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 96¢ · $758 held · ended Nov 12

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$757.99

Combined PnL

-$47.63

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 96.4¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$732.29

Total Shares747

Combined PnL+$32.99

Over6 traders

Total Value$25.69

Total Shares836

Combined PnL-$80.62

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 85¢	$340	$390.8	+$50.8	54% 288-242 (530)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 93¢	$330.42	$289.64	-$21.53	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 85.6¢	$28.53	$32.57	+$4.03	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 85¢	$19.6	$19.29	-$0.31	54% 1032-892 (1924)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 7.2¢	$94.66	$10.99	-$9.83	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$58.22	$10.29	-$47.93	33% 563-1169 (1732)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$17.14	$2.63	-$14.51	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$8.82	$1.35	-$7.47	66% 142-74 (216)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.4¢	$0.29	$0.28	-$0.01	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$1.03	$0.16	-$0.87	49% 1307-1343 (2650)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$340

Value

$390.8

PnL

+$50.8

Record

54%

288-242 (530)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$330.42

Value

$289.64

PnL

-$21.53

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$28.53

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$4.03

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.29

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94.66

Value

$10.99

PnL

-$9.83

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.22

Value

$10.29

PnL

-$47.93

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.14

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$14.51

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.82

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$7.47

Record

66%

142-74 (216)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.