Montenegro vs. Latvia: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 69¢ · $535 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$535.3
-$4.45
69.8¢ → 69¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 70¢ | $280 | $276 | -$4 | 54% 281-239 (520) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 30¢ | $114.54 | $116.34 | +$1.8 | 33% 539-1116 (1655) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $47.59 | $48.38 | +$0.79 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 69¢ | $27.17 | $27.95 | +$0.79 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 29¢ | $20.42 | $20.42 | -$0 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $35.34 | $34.77 | -$0.57 | 33% 556-1141 (1697) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $31.74 | $31.74 | +$0 | 52% 192-174 (366) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 69.2¢ | $19.43 | $17.76 | -$1.67 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $5.32 | $5.32 | -$0 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
0xheavy888Invested
$280
Value
$276
PnL
-$4
Record
54%
281-239 (520)
Invested
$114.54
Value
$116.34
PnL
+$1.8
Record
33%
539-1116 (1655)
Invested
$47.59
Value
$48.38
PnL
+$0.79
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.34
Value
$34.77
PnL
-$0.57
Record
33%
556-1141 (1697)
Invested
$31.74
Value
$31.74
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
192-174 (366)
Invested
$19.43
Value
$17.76
PnL
-$1.67
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$5.32
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.