Montenegro vs. Latvia: O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$513.97

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 71¢

+43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,813

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Over4 traders

Total Value$440.81

Total Shares1,791

Combined PnL-$491.76

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 50.3¢	$921.26	$1.4K	+$473.24	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 49.2¢	$937.7	$1.4K	+$441.81	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
RN1CTR	Overavg 52¢	$811.08	$382.89	-$428.19	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
LI Limousin	Underavg 49.7¢	$140.91	$214.18	+$73.27	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 47¢	$31.96	$49.37	+$17.41	54% 211-181 (392)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$69.65	$30.81	-$38.84	41% 293-414 (707)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$146.39	$24.8	-$21.81	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.24	$2.32	-$2.92	41% 589-849 (1438)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$921.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$473.24

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$937.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$441.81

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$811.08

Value

$382.89

PnL

-$428.19

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$140.91

Value

$214.18

PnL

+$73.27

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.96

Value

$49.37

PnL

+$17.41

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.65

Value

$30.81

PnL

-$38.84

Record

41%

293-414 (707)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$146.39

Value

$24.8

PnL

-$21.81

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.24

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$2.92

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.