Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Montenegro vs. Latvia: O/U 1.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 46¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 12

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$424.6

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 45.5¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,682

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares12,631

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dartanyan150CTR	Overavg 75¢	$7.5K	$5.1K	$-2.4K	0% 0-26 (26)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 25¢	$1.9K	$3.3K	+$1.4K	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
LI Limousin	Underavg 29.9¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$853.47	33% 563-1169 (1732)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 32.6¢	$725.17	$1.2K	+$444.44	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 63¢	$1.1K	$957.57	-$177.98	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$934.59	$756.62	-$177.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$200.95	$200.95	+$0
FI FinalOrderCTR	Overavg 51¢	$250	$230.39	-$19.61	16% 6-31 (37)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$187.42	$161.43	-$4.6	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.7¢	$117.65	$109.61	-$11.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$50.32	$51.82	+$6.63
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 25¢	$65.16	$119.58	+$58.49	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 25.5¢	$47.12	$97.81	+$50.69	33% 585-1187 (1772)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$74.67	$72.38	-$2.29	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 23¢	$13.91	$22.17	+$8.26	41% 589-849 (1438)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$21.47	$17.38	-$4.09	55% 499-416 (915)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 28¢	$5.9	$11.17	+$5.27	32% 565-1192 (1757)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.99	$10.63	+$5.64	54% 1032-892 (1924)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 72¢	$5.45	$5	-$0.45	38% 15-25 (40)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 31¢	$2.24	$3.55	+$1.3	35% 221-416 (637)

dartanyan150CTR

Over

Invested

$7,500

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

0-26 (26)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,854.81

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$1,108.25

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$853.47

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$725.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$444.44

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,135.54

Value

$957.57

PnL

-$177.98

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Both legs:

Over$934.5963¢-$177.98

Under$200.9549¢+$0

FinalOrderCTR

Over

Invested

$250

Value

$230.39

PnL

-$19.61

Record

16%

6-31 (37)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$187.42

Value

$161.43

PnL

-$4.6

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Both legs:

Over$117.6554.7¢-$11.23

Under$50.3247.6¢+$6.63

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$65.16

Value

$119.58

PnL

+$58.49

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$47.12

Value

$97.81

PnL

+$50.69

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.67

Value

$72.38

PnL

-$2.29

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$13.91

Value

$22.17

PnL

+$8.26

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.47

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$4.09

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$5.27

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.99

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$5.64

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$2.24

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$1.3

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.