Spread: Montenegro (-2.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Latvia (43%) · Latvia at 73¢ · $658 held · ends Nov 12

Montenegro28¢Latvia72¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Latvia

Consensus Traders

Latvia 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$657.9

Combined PnL

$6.8

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLatvia at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Latvia

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Montenegro28%

Latvia73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Latvia3 traders

Total Value$374.23

Total Shares506

Combined PnL-$0.42

Montenegro4 traders

Total Value$88.18

Total Shares301

Combined PnL+$7.22

Latvia — 43%Montenegro — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Latvia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLatvia 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Montenegro 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Latviaavg 73¢	$292	$292	+$0	54% 278-237 (515)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Montenegroavg 27¢	$193.09	$195.5	+$3.85	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
└ Montenegro leg	Montenegroavg 27¢	$113.48	$115.58	+$2.2
└ Latvia leg	Latviaavg 71¢	$78.26	$79.92	+$1.65
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Montenegroavg 26.7¢	$66.53	$73.39	+$6.86	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Latviaavg 73.5¢	$63.91	$63.48	-$0.43	52% 187-174 (361)
GH ghorrock<$100	Latviaavg 72.6¢	$25.56	$18.74	+$0.01	54% 994-856 (1850)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Montenegroavg 28.1¢	$11.28	$11.43	+$0.15	41% 552-797 (1349)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Montenegroavg 28¢	$1.85	$1.88	+$0.03	46% 440-515 (955)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Montenegroavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.48	+$0.18	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

0xheavy888

Latvia

Invested

$292

Value

$292

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$193.09

Value

$195.5

PnL

+$3.85

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

Both legs:

Montenegro$113.4827¢+$2.2

Latvia$78.2671¢+$1.65

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$66.53

Value

$73.39

PnL

+$6.86

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Latvia

Invested

$63.91

Value

$63.48

PnL

-$0.43

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

ghorrock<$100

Latvia

Invested

$25.56

Value

$18.74

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

sentrioCTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.18

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

NeutralLatvia at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Latvia

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Latvia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLatvia 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Montenegro 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Latvia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.