Spread: Montenegro (-1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Latvia (30%) · Latvia at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Montenegro50¢Latvia50¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Latvia

Consensus Traders

Latvia 30%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$35.97

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 50.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLatvia at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Latvia

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Montenegro50%

Latvia51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Latvia3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,402

Combined PnL+$53.44

Montenegro7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,241

Combined PnL-$17.47

Latvia — 30%Montenegro — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Latvia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMontenegro 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedMontenegro 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Montenegro 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Latviaavg 48.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$50.32	57% 45-34 (79)
VeryLucky888CTR	Montenegroavg 51¢	$765	$742.5	-$22.5	52% 746-692 (1438)
FL Flaznorp	Latviaavg 48.3¢	$699.6	$700.89	+$1.29	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Montenegroavg 52¢	$645.34	$645.34	+$0	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Montenegroavg 49¢	$114.58	$121.6	+$7.02	42% 290-405 (695)
MA MadridTime<$100	Latviaavg 49.4¢	$84.58	$86.41	+$1.83	33% 546-1093 (1639)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Montenegroavg 50¢	$67.78	$68.82	+$1.04	41% 534-766 (1300)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Montenegroavg 51¢	$40.8	$39.6	-$1.2	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Montenegroavg 52¢	$31.72	$30.2	-$1.52	52% 183-166 (349)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Montenegroavg 51.7¢	$96.22	$12.07	-$0.3	53% 920-807 (1727)

Zzzz87

Latvia

Invested

$1,482.86

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$50.32

Record

57%

45-34 (79)

VeryLucky888CTR

Montenegro

Invested

$765

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

52%

746-692 (1438)

Flaznorp

Latvia

Invested

$699.6

Value

$700.89

PnL

+$1.29

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Montenegro

Invested

$645.34

Value

$645.34

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Montenegro

Invested

$114.58

Value

$121.6

PnL

+$7.02

Record

42%

290-405 (695)

MadridTime<$100

Latvia

Invested

$84.58

Value

$86.41

PnL

+$1.83

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

sentrioCTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$67.78

Value

$68.82

PnL

+$1.04

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$40.8

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$31.72

Value

$30.2

PnL

-$1.52

Record

52%

183-166 (349)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Montenegro

Invested

$96.22

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralLatvia at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Latvia

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Latvia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMontenegro 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedMontenegro 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Montenegro 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Latvia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.