Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Montenegro win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 25¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$296.31
$5.48
24¢ → 24.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 24¢ | $180.38 | $184.14 | +$3.76 | 59% 3479-2370 (5849) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $88.59 | $90.44 | +$1.85 | 21% 100-384 (484) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $9.03 | $9.22 | +$0.19 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $7.83 | $7.52 | -$0.31 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.8 | +$0.05 | 41% 263-382 (645) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.2 | -$0.05 | 39% 395-620 (1015) |
Invested
$180.38
Value
$184.14
PnL
+$3.76
Record
59%
3479-2370 (5849)
Invested
$88.59
Value
$90.44
PnL
+$1.85
Record
21%
100-384 (484)
Invested
$9.03
Value
$9.22
PnL
+$0.19
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$7.52
PnL
-$0.31
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
263-382 (645)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
395-620 (1015)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.