Will Latvia win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
$8.7
91.2¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.4¢ | $683.8 | $692.48 | +$8.68 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 91¢ | $199.25 | $199.25 | +$0 | 20% 97-381 (478) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 91¢ | $159.1 | $159.1 | +$0 | 59% 3476-2367 (5843) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $34.49 | $34.49 | -$0 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $11.45 | $11.47 | +$0.02 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
Invested
$683.8
Value
$692.48
PnL
+$8.68
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$199.25
Value
$199.25
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
97-381 (478)
Invested
$159.1
Value
$159.1
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3476-2367 (5843)
Invested
$34.49
Value
$34.49
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$11.45
Value
$11.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.