Montenegro vs. Latvia: Draw at halftime?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$25.52

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,224

Combined PnL+$446.99

No7 traders

Total Value$12.99

Total Shares2,191

Combined PnL-$421.48

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 80.6¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$413.53	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$25.65	$55.73	+$30.08	33% 585-1187 (1772)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 89.1¢	$27.61	$30.98	+$3.37	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 43.2¢	$159.98	$11.77	-$146.59	33% 563-1169 (1732)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yesavg 99.1¢	$1.05	$1.06	+$0.01	83% 415-84 (499)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$212.74	$0.61	-$212.14	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.18	$0.3	-$2.88	42% 97-133 (230)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$47.39	$0.17	-$25.88	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$21	$0.07	-$20.92	48% 590-645 (1235)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$13.07	$0.07	-$13	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.06	$0	-$0.06	29% 206-510 (716)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,721.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$413.53

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.65

Value

$55.73

PnL

+$30.08

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.61

Value

$30.98

PnL

+$3.37

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$159.98

Value

$11.77

PnL

-$146.59

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

83%

415-84 (499)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$212.74

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$212.14

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$2.88

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$47.39

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$25.88

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$20.92

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$13.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.