Will Montenegro vs. Latvia end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$611.26
-$46.76
82.5¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 82.4¢ | $350.39 | $325.15 | -$25.24 | 20% 97-380 (477) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 82.5¢ | $299.96 | $278.11 | -$21.85 | 60% 3476-2366 (5842) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $5.78 | $5.39 | -$0.39 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $1.01 | $1.4 | +$0.39 | 41% 256-376 (632) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.88 | $1.21 | +$0.34 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
Invested
$350.39
Value
$325.15
PnL
-$25.24
Record
20%
97-380 (477)
Invested
$299.96
Value
$278.11
PnL
-$21.85
Record
60%
3476-2366 (5842)
Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.39
PnL
-$0.39
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.39
Record
41%
256-376 (632)
Invested
$0.88
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$0.34
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.