Montenegro vs. Latvia: Both Teams to Score

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$1.54

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$624.54

Total Shares1,560

Combined PnL+$6.57

No5 traders

Total Value$813.54

Total Shares1,328

Combined PnL-$5.02

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$493.16	$498.95	+$5.78	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
0xheavy888	Noavg 61.5¢	$491.99	$483.99	-$8	54% 278-237 (515)
nigiri99	Noavg 61¢	$155.55	$154.28	-$1.28	52% 352-329 (681)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 60.1¢	$110.14	$112.71	+$2.56	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$81.87	$83.12	+$1.25	41% 552-797 (1349)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 58¢	$31.9	$33.55	+$1.65	52% 187-174 (361)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$28.97	$29.01	+$0.04	54% 994-856 (1850)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$29.67	$28.89	-$0.78	33% 553-1135 (1688)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.3¢	$11.99	$12.37	+$0.38	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.28	$1.21	-$0.07	36% 209-369 (578)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$493.16

Value

$498.95

PnL

+$5.78

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

0xheavy888

Invested

$491.99

Value

$483.99

PnL

-$8

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

nigiri99

Invested

$155.55

Value

$154.28

PnL

-$1.28

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

38791873984189

Invested

$110.14

Value

$112.71

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.87

Value

$83.12

PnL

+$1.25

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.9

Value

$33.55

PnL

+$1.65

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.97

Value

$29.01

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.67

Value

$28.89

PnL

-$0.78

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.99

Value

$12.37

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.