Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$33.36

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 85.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,598

Combined PnL+$59.65

Over8 traders

Total Value$259.64

Total Shares1,767

Combined PnL-$93

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 80.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$37.75	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80.1¢	$729.97	$769.95	+$39.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.7¢	$364.83	$287.1	-$77.73
SU suntori	Underavg 80.4¢	$634.28	$698.29	+$64.01	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0xheavy888	Underavg 80.5¢	$615.92	$611.92	-$4	53% 388-339 (727)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 19.8¢	$201.1	$144.33	-$56.77	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$77.29	$44.44	-$32.85	35% 749-1385 (2134)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 16.5¢	$235.98	$34.06	-$2.23	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 81¢	$31.59	$31.2	-$0.39	56% 307-245 (552)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$16.75	$17.63	+$0.88	47% 189-212 (401)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$9.4	$9.89	+$0.49	35% 735-1379 (2114)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$4.46	$4.69	+$0.23	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 80¢	$4	$4.03	+$0.03	39% 37-59 (96)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$6.7	$3.85	-$2.85	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.66	$0.73	+$0.07	43% 808-1065 (1873)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,094.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.75

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Under$729.9780.1¢+$39.98

Over$364.8319.7¢-$77.73

suntori

Under

Invested

$634.28

Value

$698.29

PnL

+$64.01

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$615.92

Value

$611.92

PnL

-$4

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$201.1

Value

$144.33

PnL

-$56.77

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.29

Value

$44.44

PnL

-$32.85

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$235.98

Value

$34.06

PnL

-$2.23

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.59

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$0.39

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.75

Value

$17.63

PnL

+$0.88

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0.49

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.46

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.7

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$2.85

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.