Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 69¢ · $29K held · ended Nov 13

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

$750.12

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 69¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 21 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares23,969

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over12 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares10,500

Combined PnL-$717

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Over 61% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 61.1¢	$10.1K	$11.4K	+$1.3K	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 66.5¢	$4.5K	$4.0K	-$328.88	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.5¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$88.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.9¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$417.43
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62.4¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$180.28	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$38.68	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$51
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$12.32
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$30.09	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$40.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$850	$839.38	-$10.63
SH Shimi1234CTR	Overavg 41.7¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$641.47	23% 5-17 (22)
RN1	Underavg 68¢	$985.03	$990.75	+$5.72	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 62¢	$496	$464	-$32	22% 266-965 (1231)
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 34.5¢	$344.99	$344.99	+$0	9% 2-20 (22)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 38.2¢	$253.53	$278.47	+$24.94	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 38¢	$239.48	$252.14	+$12.66	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 42¢	$291.41	$204.78	-$86.63	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 38.9¢	$224.09	$178.67	-$45.42	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 39.5¢	$166.85	$175.34	+$8.49	36% 326-587 (913)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 67.7¢	$636.08	$125.25	+$1.29	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67.7¢	$71.14	$74.13	-$35.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.1¢	$59.09	$51.12	+$37.05
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 39.4¢	$101.2	$107.91	+$6.71	36% 761-1361 (2122)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$99.63	$96.31	-$3.32	53% 388-339 (727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 58.3¢	$79.28	$78.88	-$0.4	47% 189-212 (401)
32 32555<$100	Underavg 61¢	$61	$69	+$8	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$62.45	$65.57	+$3.12	48% 677-745 (1422)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61¢	$36.55	$34.75	-$1.8	56% 307-245 (552)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$16	$15.75	-$0.25	53% 631-566 (1197)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 38.7¢	$13.53	$13.98	+$0.45	35% 749-1385 (2134)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$7.6	$8	+$0.4	40% 17-26 (43)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 58.1¢	$52.43	$7.77	+$1.46	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$10,096.69

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,490.37

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$328.88

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Under$2,326.7866.5¢+$88.55

Over$1,969.3138.9¢-$417.43

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,757.36

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$180.28

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,545.25

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$38.68

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Under$1,491.7558.5¢+$51

Over$1,053.540¢-$12.32

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,055.98

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$30.09

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Under$1,205.9858.5¢+$40.71

Over$85040¢-$10.63

Shimi1234CTR

Over

Invested

$2,500

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$641.47

Record

23%

5-17 (22)

RN1

Under

Invested

$985.03

Value

$990.75

PnL

+$5.72

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$496

Value

$464

PnL

-$32

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$344.99

Value

$344.99

PnL

+$0

Record

2-20 (22)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$253.53

Value

$278.47

PnL

+$24.94

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$239.48

Value

$252.14

PnL

+$12.66

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$291.41

Value

$204.78

PnL

-$86.63

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$224.09

Value

$178.67

PnL

-$45.42

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$166.85

Value

$175.34

PnL

+$8.49

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$636.08

Value

$125.25

PnL

+$1.29

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Both legs:

Under$71.1467.7¢-$35.76

Over$59.0934.1¢+$37.05

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$101.2

Value

$107.91

PnL

+$6.71

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$99.63

Value

$96.31

PnL

-$3.32

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$79.28

Value

$78.88

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

32555<$100

Under

Invested

$61

Value

$69

PnL

+$8

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.45

Value

$65.57

PnL

+$3.12

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$36.55

Value

$34.75

PnL

-$1.8

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.53

Value

$13.98

PnL

+$0.45

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$52.43

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 21 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

39% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Over 61% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.