Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (84%) · Under at 51¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 13

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 84%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$612.67

Smart Money Entry

35.7¢ → 50.5¢

+41% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 19 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under16 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,643

Combined PnL+$625.85

Over3 traders

Total Value$77.39

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$13.18

Under — 84%Over — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 36¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$374.78	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$559.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.2¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$184.63
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 36.7¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$341.61	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.7¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$489
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.7¢	$810.64	$663.25	-$147.39
VE Venusian	Underavg 34.7¢	$523.71	$732.07	+$208.36	34% 735-1404 (2139)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 34.3¢	$435.63	$641.08	+$205.45	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 39.4¢	$464.94	$501.99	+$37.05	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LI Limousin	Underavg 37.8¢	$313.59	$419.33	+$105.74	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 37¢	$389.24	$394.44	+$5.21	36% 326-587 (913)
NM NM-P	Underavg 31¢	$194.56	$197.7	+$3.14	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FO foooool	Underavg 37¢	$111	$151.5	+$40.5	39% 37-59 (96)
RN1<$100	Underavg 36.1¢	$71.45	$78.15	+$6.7	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Underavg 33¢	$59.71	$66.95	+$7.24	32% 291-613 (904)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$76.66	$62.77	-$13.89	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 31.9¢	$52.45	$51.83	-$0.61	47% 189-212 (401)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 33¢	$46.2	$43.4	-$2.8	56% 307-245 (552)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 37¢	$21.09	$28.79	+$7.7	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 32.5¢	$21.7	$21.01	-$0.69	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 34¢	$13.29	$14.46	+$1.17	48% 677-745 (1422)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$12.2	$12.8	+$0.6	53% 631-566 (1197)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 45¢	$109.6	$9.04	+$2.04	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 33.4¢	$4.74	$4.41	-$0.33	43% 808-1065 (1873)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Overavg 65¢	$1.71	$1.81	+$0.11	61% 1003-631 (1634)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,136.82

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$374.78

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Under$1,929.4936¢+$559.41

Over$1,207.3263.2¢-$184.63

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,216.59

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$341.61

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Under$1,405.9536.7¢+$489

Over$810.6461.7¢-$147.39

Venusian

Under

Invested

$523.71

Value

$732.07

PnL

+$208.36

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$435.63

Value

$641.08

PnL

+$205.45

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$464.94

Value

$501.99

PnL

+$37.05

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$313.59

Value

$419.33

PnL

+$105.74

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$389.24

Value

$394.44

PnL

+$5.21

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$194.56

Value

$197.7

PnL

+$3.14

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

foooool

Under

Invested

$111

Value

$151.5

PnL

+$40.5

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$71.45

Value

$78.15

PnL

+$6.7

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

SlickRick123<$100

Under

Invested

$59.71

Value

$66.95

PnL

+$7.24

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.66

Value

$62.77

PnL

-$13.89

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$52.45

Value

$51.83

PnL

-$0.61

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$46.2

Value

$43.4

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$21.09

Value

$28.79

PnL

+$7.7

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$21.7

Value

$21.01

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$13.29

Value

$14.46

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$109.6

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$2.04

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$0.33

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.11

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 19 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.