Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 84¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 13

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$495.11

Smart Money Entry

89.4¢ → 83.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares11,535

Combined PnL-$13.13

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares11,700

Combined PnL+$508.25

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KupaKeepKlan	Overavg 90¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	-$44.45	100% 69-0 (69)
RN1	Overavg 87¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.82	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 10¢	$936.69	$1.3K	+$349.03	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 89¢	$662.17	$673.33	+$11.16	48% 677-745 (1422)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 13.1¢	$334.77	$420.75	+$85.97	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 84.9¢	$325.88	$234.41	+$11.93	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$57.15	$94.3	+$37.15	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$43.17	$71.23	+$28.06	36% 761-1361 (2122)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$60.84	$64.22	+$3.38	47% 189-212 (401)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 87¢	$60.9	$61.25	+$0.35	53% 631-566 (1197)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 11.5¢	$51.99	$56.56	+$4.57	39% 37-59 (96)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 89¢	$13.13	$13.13	+$0	76% 147-47 (194)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.45	+$0.05	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$3.44	$3.28	-$0.16	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 10.3¢	$36.44	$0.99	+$0.22	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.68	+$0.03	36% 326-587 (913)

KupaKeepKlan

Over

Invested

$8,001

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$44.45

Record

100%

69-0 (69)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,360.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.82

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$936.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$349.03

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$662.17

Value

$673.33

PnL

+$11.16

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$334.77

Value

$420.75

PnL

+$85.97

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$325.88

Value

$234.41

PnL

+$11.93

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.15

Value

$94.3

PnL

+$37.15

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.17

Value

$71.23

PnL

+$28.06

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.84

Value

$64.22

PnL

+$3.38

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$60.9

Value

$61.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.99

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$4.57

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$13.13

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

147-47 (194)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.16

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.44

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.