Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: Moldova O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 50¢ · $366 held · ended Nov 13

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$365.72

Combined PnL

$7.93

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 50¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$193.1

Total Shares371

Combined PnL-$6.45

Over3 traders

Total Value$76.24

Total Shares177

Combined PnL+$14.38

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$85.09	$96.38	+$11.29	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.7¢	$65.92	$67.02	+$1.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.6¢	$19.17	$29.36	+$10.18
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 67.5¢	$72.13	$65.47	-$6.66	56% 309-246 (555)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 45¢	$44.1	$43.61	-$0.49	34% 736-1405 (2141)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$34.32	$38.88	+$4.55	48% 677-745 (1422)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 32¢	$31.36	$37.98	+$6.62	35% 736-1380 (2116)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 38.8¢	$28.57	$36.13	+$7.56	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$39.6	$35.93	-$3.67	36% 763-1361 (2124)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 62¢	$7	$6.91	-$0.08	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.4	$2.3	-$0.1	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 35¢	$1.93	$2.14	+$0.21	43% 809-1065 (1874)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$85.09

Value

$96.38

PnL

+$11.29

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Both legs:

Under$65.9247.7¢+$1.1

Over$19.1733.6¢+$10.18

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$72.13

Value

$65.47

PnL

-$6.66

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$44.1

Value

$43.61

PnL

-$0.49

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$34.32

Value

$38.88

PnL

+$4.55

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$31.36

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$6.62

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$28.57

Value

$36.13

PnL

+$7.56

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$39.6

Value

$35.93

PnL

-$3.67

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$1.93

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.21

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.