Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: Moldova O/U 0.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $124 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$124.37

Combined PnL

-$171.71

Smart Money Entry

27.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$109.69

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$25.7

Under6 traders

Total Value$14.67

Total Shares759

Combined PnL-$197.4

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 69.8¢	$78.89	$104.56	+$25.67	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$9.62	$9.56	-$0.05	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$5.11	$5.13	+$0.03	98% 343-6 (349)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 27¢	$139.12	$2.58	-$136.54	48% 677-745 (1422)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.39	$1.44	+$0.05	35% 750-1386 (2136)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$31.03	$0.54	-$30.5	34% 736-1405 (2141)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$29.52	$0.53	-$28.99	35% 736-1380 (2116)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.4	$0.03	-$1.38	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$78.89

Value

$104.56

PnL

+$25.67

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$139.12

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$136.54

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.03

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$30.5

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.52

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$28.99

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.38

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.