Spread: Moldova (-1.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Kazakhstan (77%) · Kazakhstan at 67¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Moldova34¢Kazakhstan66¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kazakhstan

Consensus Traders

Kazakhstan 77%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$234.69

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 66.5¢

-20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralKazakhstan at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kazakhstan

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Moldova34%

Kazakhstan67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kazakhstan10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,512

Combined PnL+$248.29

Moldova3 traders

Total Value$28.02

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$13.6

Kazakhstan — 77%Moldova — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Kazakhstan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKazakhstan 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKazakhstan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kazakhstan 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Kazakhstanavg 83.1¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$115.1	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FO forecastication4	Kazakhstanavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$62.4	31% 134-299 (433)
RN1	Kazakhstanavg 83¢	$682.8	$715.7	+$32.91	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
FL Flaznorp	Kazakhstanavg 84.6¢	$304.82	$313.32	+$8.5	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SE sentrio	Kazakhstanavg 83¢	$198.2	$207.75	+$9.55	43% 809-1065 (1874)
SN SnakeBall	Kazakhstanavg 82.5¢	$135.6	$143.05	+$7.45	48% 677-745 (1422)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Kazakhstanavg 83.1¢	$95.54	$100.05	+$4.51	47% 191-212 (403)
38 38791873984189	Kazakhstanavg 82.8¢	$434.65	$88.79	+$5.16	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Kazakhstanavg 85¢	$64.6	$66.12	+$1.52	56% 309-246 (555)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kazakhstanavg 81¢	$16.2	$17.4	+$1.2	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Moldovaavg 18¢	$23.22	$16.77	-$6.45	45% 214-259 (473)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Moldovaavg 31¢	$17.4	$10.44	-$6.96	39% 37-59 (96)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Moldovaavg 16¢	$1	$0.81	-$0.19	35% 750-1386 (2136)

GoalLineGhost

Kazakhstan

Invested

$2,588.37

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$115.1

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

forecastication4

Kazakhstan

Invested

$1,294.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$62.4

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

RN1

Kazakhstan

Invested

$682.8

Value

$715.7

PnL

+$32.91

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Flaznorp

Kazakhstan

Invested

$304.82

Value

$313.32

PnL

+$8.5

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

sentrio

Kazakhstan

Invested

$198.2

Value

$207.75

PnL

+$9.55

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

SnakeBall

Kazakhstan

Invested

$135.6

Value

$143.05

PnL

+$7.45

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Kazakhstan

Invested

$95.54

Value

$100.05

PnL

+$4.51

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

38791873984189

Kazakhstan

Invested

$434.65

Value

$88.79

PnL

+$5.16

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Kazakhstan

Invested

$64.6

Value

$66.12

PnL

+$1.52

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

ferdinand2<$100

Kazakhstan

Invested

$16.2

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Moldova

Invested

$23.22

Value

$16.77

PnL

-$6.45

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

fooooolCTR<$100

Moldova

Invested

$17.4

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$6.96

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Moldova

Invested

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

Research grade

NeutralKazakhstan at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kazakhstan

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Kazakhstan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKazakhstan 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKazakhstan 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kazakhstan 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kazakhstan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.