Will Moldova win on 2026-11-13?

13 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (48%) · No at 60¢ · $71K held · ended Nov 13

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 48%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$70.7K

Combined PnL

$154.61

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 27 top traders (48%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$33.6K

Total Shares55,391

Combined PnL+$550.49

Yes14 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares25,263

Combined PnL-$395.88

No — 48%Yes — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 72% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310	Noavg 59.7¢	$19.4K	$19.6K	+$268.28	— 3-1 (4)
KC Kch-Temp	Noavg 60¢	$8.8K	$9.1K	+$220.88	2% 3-154 (157)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 39.4¢	$8.3K	$8.5K	+$166.92	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.4¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$139.53
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$27.39
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$7.3K	$7.1K	-$268.34	41% 544-788 (1332)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 60.4¢	$7.6K	$6.9K	-$24.63	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.4¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$10.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.2¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$34.95
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 40.1¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	+$42.42	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.1¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$42.13
└ No leg	Noavg 59.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.29
CA CandleHammerDrums	Noavg 58.6¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$48.4	48% 423-457 (880)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$42.71	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$54.82
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$58.25	33% 251-499 (750)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$67.03
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$74.82	26% 250-703 (953)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$773.06	$734.41	-$38.65	41% 91-132 (223)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 59¢	$664.29	$670.02	+$5.73	36% 326-587 (913)
NO NotJump	Noavg 59¢	$251.23	$253.35	+$2.12	53% 631-566 (1197)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$230.1	$221.86	-$8.24	30% 77-180 (257)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.6¢	$126.42	$121.42	-$5
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$103.68	$100.44	-$3.24
FO foooool	Noavg 60¢	$183.34	$181.85	-$1.49	39% 37-59 (96)
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$247.63	$162.61	-$13.89	22% 56-203 (259)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$131.57	$120.86	-$13.95
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$40.71	$41.75	+$0.06
LI Limousin	Noavg 61¢	$159.97	$162.59	+$2.62	35% 735-1379 (2114)
AF afrazCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$155.4	$146.15	-$9.25	— 3-2 (5)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$121.5	$115.75	-$1.12	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$120	$114	-$6	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$114.8	$106.4	-$8.4	47% 189-212 (401)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 61¢	$98.22	$99.03	+$0.81	54% 25-21 (46)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$565.1	$97.87	+$15.48	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.4¢	$72.52	$70.88	+$12.97
└ No leg	Noavg 59.2¢	$26.86	$26.99	+$2.52
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$179.98	$96.97	-$2.61	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.7¢	$49.34	$50.36	-$10.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.1¢	$49.15	$46.61	+$7.69
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 64¢	$95.99	$91.49	-$4.5	56% 307-245 (552)

viper0310

Invested

$19,378.19

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$268.28

Record

—

3-1 (4)

Kch-Temp

Invested

$8,835.36

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$220.88

Record

3-154 (157)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$8,339.83

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$166.92

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Yes$4,778.9439.4¢+$139.53

No$3,560.8959¢+$27.39

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,342.4

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$268.34

Record

41%

544-788 (1332)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$7,552.08

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$24.63

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

No$4,276.1860.4¢+$10.32

Yes$2,642.4540.2¢-$34.95

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,096.41

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$42.42

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Both legs:

Yes$4,645.7540.1¢+$42.13

No$1,450.6659.5¢+$0.29

CandleHammerDrums

Invested

$3,330.94

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$48.4

Record

48%

423-457 (880)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,692.41

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$42.71

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

No$1,479.5261¢+$12.11

Yes$1,212.940.3¢-$54.82

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,501.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$58.25

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

No$1,256.461.6¢+$8.78

Yes$1,244.6340.2¢-$67.03

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,512.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$74.82

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$773.06

Value

$734.41

PnL

-$38.65

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$664.29

Value

$670.02

PnL

+$5.73

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

NotJump

Invested

$251.23

Value

$253.35

PnL

+$2.12

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

OddstormARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$230.1

Value

$221.86

PnL

-$8.24

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Both legs:

Yes$126.4239.6¢-$5

No$103.6864¢-$3.24

foooool

Invested

$183.34

Value

$181.85

PnL

-$1.49

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

PT-S7ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$247.63

Value

$162.61

PnL

-$13.89

Record

22%

56-203 (259)

Both legs:

Yes$131.5743¢-$13.95

No$40.7159¢+$0.06

Limousin

Invested

$159.97

Value

$162.59

PnL

+$2.62

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

afrazCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.4

Value

$146.15

PnL

-$9.25

Record

—

3-2 (5)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.5

Value

$115.75

PnL

-$1.12

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$114

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$114.8

Value

$106.4

PnL

-$8.4

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$98.22

Value

$99.03

PnL

+$0.81

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$565.1

Value

$97.87

PnL

+$15.48

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Both legs:

Yes$72.5241.4¢+$12.97

No$26.8659.2¢+$2.52

ghorrockARB<$100

Invested

$179.98

Value

$96.97

PnL

-$2.61

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Both legs:

No$49.3460.7¢-$10.3

Yes$49.1540.1¢+$7.69

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$95.99

Value

$91.49

PnL

-$4.5

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 27 top traders (48%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 72% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.