Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-11-13?

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 75¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$235.68

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 74.5¢

+9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,988

Combined PnL+$245.42

Yes10 traders

Total Value$435.27

Total Shares1,543

Combined PnL-$9.73

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 69.7¢	$992.15	$1.1K	+$74.95	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LI Limousin	Noavg 68.6¢	$765.1	$831.25	+$66.15	35% 735-1379 (2114)
NM NM-P	Noavg 66.4¢	$759.14	$791.51	+$32.36	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 66.6¢	$672.14	$721.9	+$49.75	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$716.5	$705.56	-$10.95	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$388.35	$385.69	-$2.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.2¢	$328.15	$319.86	-$8.29
KY Kyn008	Noavg 69¢	$450.08	$453.35	+$3.26	40% 137-202 (339)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$221.74	$228.46	+$6.73	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GC GC-P	Noavg 67¢	$218.72	$225.25	+$6.53	33% 251-499 (750)
PT PT-S7ARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$116.9	$116.23	-$0.67	22% 56-203 (259)
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$65.35	$66.73	+$1.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.6¢	$51.55	$49.5	-$2.05
38 38791873984189	Noavg 70.1¢	$562.73	$112.77	+$7.34	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 68¢	$81.61	$82.81	+$1.2	36% 761-1361 (2122)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 67.4¢	$68.62	$70.28	+$1.67	30% 77-180 (257)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.2¢	$87.7	$69.43	-$18.27	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$63.94	$65.08	+$1.14	48% 423-457 (880)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 72¢	$46.05	$46.07	+$0.02	56% 3978-3112 (7090)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 67¢	$40.61	$41.82	+$1.21	43% 68-91 (159)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$78.42	$34.1	+$1.17	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 66¢	$21.35	$22.32	+$0.97	56% 307-245 (552)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$14.78	$15.02	+$0.25	26% 250-703 (953)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$8.71	$7.92	-$0.79	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$6.43	$6.43	-$0	47% 189-212 (401)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.13	$4.5	+$0.37	60% 689-467 (1156)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$3.3	$3	-$0.3	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.33	-$0.02	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

LightParadox

Invested

$992.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$74.95

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Limousin

Invested

$765.1

Value

$831.25

PnL

+$66.15

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

NM-P

Invested

$759.14

Value

$791.51

PnL

+$32.36

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$672.14

Value

$721.9

PnL

+$49.75

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$716.5

Value

$705.56

PnL

-$10.95

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Both legs:

No$388.3573¢-$2.66

Yes$328.1528.2¢-$8.29

Kyn008

Invested

$450.08

Value

$453.35

PnL

+$3.26

Record

40%

137-202 (339)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$221.74

Value

$228.46

PnL

+$6.73

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GC-P

Invested

$218.72

Value

$225.25

PnL

+$6.53

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

PT-S7ARB<$100

Invested

$116.9

Value

$116.23

PnL

-$0.67

Record

22%

56-203 (259)

Both legs:

No$65.3571¢+$1.38

Yes$51.5528.6¢-$2.05

38791873984189

Invested

$562.73

Value

$112.77

PnL

+$7.34

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$81.61

Value

$82.81

PnL

+$1.2

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$68.62

Value

$70.28

PnL

+$1.67

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.7

Value

$69.43

PnL

-$18.27

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.94

Value

$65.08

PnL

+$1.14

Record

48%

423-457 (880)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$46.05

Value

$46.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

3978-3112 (7090)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$40.61

Value

$41.82

PnL

+$1.21

Record

43%

68-91 (159)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.42

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$1.17

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$21.35

Value

$22.32

PnL

+$0.97

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.78

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$0.25

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.71

Value

$7.92

PnL

-$0.79

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.37

Record

60%

689-467 (1156)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.