Moldova leading at halftime?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$807.79

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,291

Combined PnL+$407.52

No8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,160

Combined PnL+$400.27

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 49.4¢	$394.58	$799.04	+$404.45	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Yesavg 99¢	$471.4	$473.78	+$2.38	98% 343-6 (349)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 87.4¢	$409.52	$382.3	-$27.22	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 6.8¢	$27.03	$323.32	+$297.31	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 70¢	$112.2	$141.05	+$28.85	48% 677-745 (1422)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$6.41	$80.53	+$74.12	47% 786-902 (1688)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$47.6	$59.84	+$12.24	47% 191-212 (403)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$24.41	$29.56	+$5.15	36% 763-1361 (2124)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 95.3¢	$14.3	$14.99	+$0.69	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$8.56	$5.74	+$8.83	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.88	$4.88	+$1	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$394.58

Value

$799.04

PnL

+$404.45

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Yes

Invested

$471.4

Value

$473.78

PnL

+$2.38

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$409.52

Value

$382.3

PnL

-$27.22

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$27.03

Value

$323.32

PnL

+$297.31

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$112.2

Value

$141.05

PnL

+$28.85

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$80.53

PnL

+$74.12

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$47.6

Value

$59.84

PnL

+$12.24

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$24.41

Value

$29.56

PnL

+$5.15

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.3

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0.69

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$8.56

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$8.83

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.