Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: 1st Half O/U 1.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$608.27

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,946

Combined PnL+$610.16

Over1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$1.89

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Underavg 72¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$261.43	31% 134-299 (433)
poshposh	Underavg 71.3¢	$584.19	$730.19	+$146	47% 786-902 (1688)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 83.6¢	$670	$700.25	+$30.24	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 73¢	$254.75	$310.96	+$56.22	48% 677-745 (1422)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 72.3¢	$193.11	$237.92	+$44.81	56% 309-246 (555)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 85.7¢	$563.12	$184.77	+$58.32	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 72.8¢	$62.66	$80.3	+$17.65	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.8¢	$33.04	$40.44	+$7.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 8.1¢	$29.61	$39.87	+$10.25
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 73¢	$53.4	$65.18	+$11.78	45% 214-259 (473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 72.2¢	$19.79	$10.84	+$1.36	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$1.9	$0.01	-$1.89	46% 2104-2463 (4567)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$1,100.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$261.43

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$584.19

Value

$730.19

PnL

+$146

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$670

Value

$700.25

PnL

+$30.24

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$254.75

Value

$310.96

PnL

+$56.22

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$193.11

Value

$237.92

PnL

+$44.81

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$563.12

Value

$184.77

PnL

+$58.32

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$62.66

Value

$80.3

PnL

+$17.65

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Both legs:

Under$33.0472.8¢+$7.4

Over$29.618.1¢+$10.25

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$53.4

Value

$65.18

PnL

+$11.78

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$19.79

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$1.36

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.89

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.