Exact Score: Moldova 2 - 2 Kazakhstan?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$2.6K
-$10.47
96¢ → 95.4¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$10.03 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 96.1¢ | $165.54 | $164.34 | -$1.2 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.7¢ | $100.15 | $101.2 | +$1.05 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $91.75 | $76.22 | -$15.53 | 56% 4863-3816 (8679) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $29.99 | $14.98 | +$0.1 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $9.86 | $9.84 | -$0.02 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $7.94 | $5.35 | -$2.59 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $6.81 | $4.59 | -$2.22 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $0.23 | $0.17 | -$0.07 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
Invested
$2,218.65
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$10.03
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$165.54
Value
$164.34
PnL
-$1.2
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$100.15
Value
$101.2
PnL
+$1.05
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$91.75
Value
$76.22
PnL
-$15.53
Record
56%
4863-3816 (8679)
Invested
$29.99
Value
$14.98
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$9.86
Value
$9.84
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
Invested
$7.94
Value
$5.35
PnL
-$2.59
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$2.22
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.