Exact Score: Moldova 2 - 1 Kazakhstan?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$49.83

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 100¢

+76% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$856.55

Total Shares881

Combined PnL+$108.34

No8 traders

Total Value$274.82

Total Shares637

Combined PnL-$58.51

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 59.2¢	$748.34	$809.6	+$82.38	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
RN1CTR	Noavg 78¢	$155.26	$76.48	-$78.78	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 91¢	$51.84	$52.98	+$1.14	47% 191-212 (403)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 50.5¢	$153.05	$44.61	+$5.18	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$24.11	$40.19	+$16.08	37% 659-1143 (1802)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$9.92	$23.61	+$13.69	60% 55-37 (92)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$8.7	$21.24	+$12.54	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$21.64	$20.88	-$0.76	35% 750-1386 (2136)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 91¢	$19.11	$18.27	-$0.84	48% 677-745 (1422)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$13.7	$12.99	-$0.71	47% 786-902 (1688)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.24	$8.42	+$0.18	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$2.37	$2.11	-$0.26	54% 467-398 (865)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$748.34

Value

$809.6

PnL

+$82.38

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

RN1CTR

Invested

$155.26

Value

$76.48

PnL

-$78.78

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$51.84

Value

$52.98

PnL

+$1.14

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$153.05

Value

$44.61

PnL

+$5.18

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$24.11

Value

$40.19

PnL

+$16.08

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.92

Value

$23.61

PnL

+$13.69

Record

60%

55-37 (92)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$21.24

PnL

+$12.54

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$21.64

Value

$20.88

PnL

-$0.76

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$19.11

Value

$18.27

PnL

-$0.84

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$0.71

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$8.24

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

RichieRicher<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

467-398 (865)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.