Exact Score: Moldova 1 - 2 Kazakhstan?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$46.58

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,694

Combined PnL-$44.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.71

Total Shares95

Combined PnL-$1.9

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$52.04	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
NM NM-P	Noavg 92¢	$265.97	$268.86	+$2.89	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
RN1	Noavg 83.1¢	$106.89	$111.31	+$4.42	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$97.87	$91.56	+$37.29	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.1¢	$48.81	$49.04	-$14.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.1¢	$10.68	$42.51	+$52.01
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.67	$17.67	+$0	35% 750-1386 (2136)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$6.99	$5.24	-$1.75	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	98% 343-6 (349)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.62	$0.47	-$0.16	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,308.06

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$52.04

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

NM-P

Invested

$265.97

Value

$268.86

PnL

+$2.89

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

RN1

Invested

$106.89

Value

$111.31

PnL

+$4.42

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$97.87

Value

$91.56

PnL

+$37.29

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

Both legs:

No$48.8183.1¢-$14.72

Yes$10.684.1¢+$52.01

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$17.67

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.99

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$1.75

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.