Exact Score: Moldova 1 - 1 Kazakhstan?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 88¢ · $379 held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$378.52
$6.13
84¢ → 88¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+18 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 84¢ | $178.07 | $178.07 | +$0 | 47% 191-212 (403) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $67.97 | $69.16 | +$1.19 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $32.36 | $31.98 | -$0.38 | 36% 326-587 (913) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $28.57 | $26.22 | -$2.35 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $23.63 | $23.91 | +$0.28 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.2¢ | $17.83 | $17.59 | -$0.24 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $15.75 | $16.13 | +$0.38 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $17.5 | $15.46 | +$7.26 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
Invested
$178.07
Value
$178.07
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
191-212 (403)
Invested
$67.97
Value
$69.16
PnL
+$1.19
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$32.36
Value
$31.98
PnL
-$0.38
Record
36%
326-587 (913)
Invested
$28.57
Value
$26.22
PnL
-$2.35
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$23.63
Value
$23.91
PnL
+$0.28
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$17.59
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$0.38
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$15.46
PnL
+$7.26
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.